| The Power of the Vig | ||||
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In a perfect world, sportsbooks in Nevada andworldwide could take in a proportionate amount of money on eachside of a football game without ever moving their line. This wouldguarantee bookmakers a 4.4 percent profit and it would eliminatethe risk that is inherent with taking sports wagers. The profiton balanced action comes from the vig, or juice, that is chargedon sports bets. The vig - short for vigorish -- gives the booksa built-in edge against the betting public. It's not a perfect world, however, for bookiesin the new Millennium. Every sportsbook must sweat out a multitudeof games each week of the football season where they have bigdecisions riding on each outcome. While some shops prefer to havea decision on a larger ratio of games - often setting their linesin a fashion where they are betting against the recreational bettors,or 'squares' as they are often called in the industry -- manyprefer to balance as many games as possible - relying on the vigfor assured profits -- and hope for some favorable results inthe rest of the contests. Because the books often have decisions ridingon a number of games on any given football Sunday, there is areal chance that they can lose money during any NFL weekend. The bookies tend to do well on college football Saturdays - as theytend to book more balanced action than they do in the pros --but there is always the threat that things can go wrong on Sundays,even with the protection provided by the vig. Books must be extremely careful when setting andmoving their numbers. If they move the line around key numberslike three and seven at certain times during the week, they canrun the risk of getting 'sided' if the game falls on the key number(say the line on a game opens at 2 ½ with heavy actionon the favorite. If the line moves to three and the game fallson that number, the book pushes on all bets at three and paysthe bets at minus 2 1/2). If the bookie moves his number aroundtoo much, there is a chance the game can fall somewhere in themiddle, therefore causing the bookie to pay out on both sides.Bookmakers refer to this as getting 'middled.' Even pushes can be bad for the books because theylose out on all operating costs incurred for that particular game. Sportsbooks in this day and age are bringing in hundreds of thousandsof dollars in handle each weekend of the football season and thereare many operational costs associated with booking those games.A push, however, is a much-preferred option to getting sided ormiddled. In order to reduce some of this exposure, bookiesnow use an off-standard line more than ever before. Instead ofoffering a player the standard minus 10 cents vig (bet $110 ona side, win $100), bookies are now moving their juice around accordingto their action instead of moving the actual number for the game.For example, if the line on a Monday night game opens at minusthree and then a player puts a limit bet on the underdog, thebookie may move the number to minus-three (minus 35 cents) forthat team in order to offer more attractive juice on the favorite.This promotes balanced action and allows the bookie to stay onthree instead of moving to 3 ½, which could put him ina vulnerable position. "If you didn't have to move lines to getbalanced action there would be no better setup," said RobGillespie, president of BoDog's Sportsbook and Casino. "It'slike running a poker room. You just go in there and you know youare going to have your rake (the vig) on every single game. "What you don't want to have is the situationswhere you balance action all day and then you get completely lopsidedon one game. You have no chance to win that money back if youlose. You can completely wipe out your players with a big win.When you get a group of five or six games that are lopsided youhope you go down the middle and split. It keeps the money in circulation." Gillespie makes no excuses for BoDog's style ofbookmaking. The book releases its lines after most other bookshave already posted theirs. Gillespie turns away most of the professionalaction as well. Plus, they use the off-standard line more thanmost others in the industry. They rely heavily on the vig to keeptheir business profitable. Still, balancing all action is nearly impossibleeven when a book like BoDog installs measures intended to do justthat. For the NFL, BoDog has roughly 35 percent of their weeklyaction balanced to where they have no 'root' on the games. Foranother 40 percent of the games they have what Gillespie describesas a small decision where they stand to lose $15,000-$20,000 ifthe bettors hit their side. In the other 25 percent of the gamesthey just have to sweat them out and hope they booked the rightnumber. With a large decision riding on approximatelya quarter of the NFL games on any given weekend, Gillespie wouldrather take his chance against the squares. "Typically, Sunday and Monday night gamesare hard to balance (because of a run of public money),"added Gillespie. "Obviously there are games where you lookand say, 'I don't see what the public sees here. This doesn'tseem right.' We don't want to put too many opinions out there.But there are certain times obviously where we feel we have abig advantage with our line. If we think a fair line is five and(the public) is wanting to lay six, getting that extra point isreal powerful for us." Now that most books offer first-and-second-halfbetting and a plethora of teaser options, balancing the bookscan become even more difficult. Doc at Rio, the head oddsmakerfor Skybook, often uses his second-half numbers to help balancehis books - even if it means giving the professionals some linesthat they can win with. As long as they can help balance out someof the public action he knows he will always be ensured a profitwith the vig. "Depending on how much action I have written,I let people bet a lot in the second halves," he said. "Iam not really worried about the second half number falling unlessit is a key number. I will let them bounce around. I really don'tcare. But I want to write action that suits me. If I have no decisionon a game, I will just try and balance out my second half likethe game and go for the juice." Skybook is one of the books that chooses to abandonthe conservative approach and go heavily against the public bettors.Doc from Rio said that he only has one NFL game per weekend thathe is balanced on. "You get a lot of public action and you wantto root against them," he said. "You don't want to tryand write back all their money." "I am one of the guys that tends to holdlarger decisions probably than a lot of sportsbooks," addedLeo Shafto, head oddsmaker for Royal Sports . "It dependson who's playing. If I have real sharp guys that I know are sharpcustomers; those guys are a lot more influential to me if theyplay $500 on a game than what I perceive to be a complete squarewho has more money than he knows what to do with and he comesin to bet $10,000 on a game. I would move (the number) off ofthe $500 before I would move off the other guy's $10,000." |
| Last Updated ( Monday, 09 November 2009 13:40 ) |


